Dairy market growth picks up pace

The dairy market has picked up over the latest 12 weeks, growing at 0.4% compared with the 0.2% seen over the previous 12 weeks. Over the same period, the wider grocery market grew 1.3%, while the fresh and chilled sector accelerated its growth to 1.1%, up from 0.5%, in the previous 12 weeks.

Half of the sectors in dairy are contributing to the positive performance in the market, with cheese and cream standing out in comparison with the previous 12 weeks. On the other hand, the contribution to decline in milk worsened to the tune of £3.6m.

Most retailers are seeing an improvement in contribution to dairy growth with only Sainsbury’s, Waitrose and Aldi making a negative contribution. Sainsbury’s and Waitrose fare the worst, with contribution declining by £4.1 million and £1.6 million respectively. Interestingly, Aldi’s growth slows for the fourth period in a row. The sectors driving the contribution to decline in Sainsbury’s are yoghurt (-£1.4 million vs last period), eggs (-£1.2 million) and milk (£-1 million). Cheese contributes to overall market growth, with sales up 3.5%, contribution to growth coming from Morrison’s, Co-Operative and Iceland.

There’s a trend of contribution from shoppers in the lower socio-economic (C2DE) groups decreasing, which continues this period but has slowed, resulting in a positive change in contribution of £2.8 million. Shoppers across most life stages see positive change in contribution with pre-family seeing the biggest change and reducing their decline by £3.3m. The strong performance of cheese is driven by contribution growth in upmarket (AB) shoppers (£2.3m) and retirees (£1.9m), a steady trend seen across the last four 12 week periods.    

The growth in dairy overall comes mainly through full price sales (£6.4m) and an uptick in Y for £X promotions (£6.9m), despite the latter’s decline period on period. Price reductions have been pulled back resulting in -£11m less vs previous 12 weeks. Cheese is growing predominantly through base sales (£3.3m) but also Y for £X promotions (£1.2m).