Meat & Poultry volumes frozen as the weather turns

The leaves are starting to turn and we are seeing Autumn take hold after an unseasonably warm August and September. Over the last few months we have seen a continuation of the trends we’ve seen all summer. The latest Meat, Fish and Poultry (MFP) figures from Kantar Worldpanel for the 12 weeks ending 9th October 2016 buck this trend with volumes virtually static year-on-year in all areas except Chilled Fish.

Despite the changes in exchange rates and on-going uncertainty around Brexit, prices are still falling in many markets and driving value to lag behind volume in all Meat & Poultry categories. Over the next few months we expect to see some categories start to see inflationary rises as the cost of raw materials and imports rise.

Chilled Fish continues to thrive with both value and volume growth rate increasing compared with our last update.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP explains: “Added Value and Shellfish products are both growing ahead of the market and helping to drive up prices. 860,000 more shoppers have bought into Added Value fish this period, buying more Prawn, Salmon and Cod products. Prawns are also driving the growth in Shellfish with 640,000 more shoppers buying them compared to last year.”

Within Fresh Primary Meat & Poultry, Chicken is the only major category still showing volume growth, with Beef and Turkey moving from growth last period into decline this period. Ward continues: “Chicken has the fastest volume growth in Primary Meat & Poultry with half a million more shoppers buying more often this year. Breasts and Legs are still the categories stimulating volumes in Chicken, with growth coming from non-promoted sales driving volumes.

Fresh Beef has moved into decline despite falling prices, with shoppers’ repertoires slightly smaller this year. Roasts are driving the decline and may have been affected by the unseasonably temperate weather compared with last year. Mince growth has slowed, but Steak continues to perform strongly through non promoted sales.”

Our next data release with be published in 4 weeks’ time. Will we see volumes return to growth in Fresh Meat & Poultry or will Chilled Fish continues to outperform the market?