Waiting for the jubilee

The latest grocery share figures from Kantar Worldpanel, published today for the 12 weeks ending 13 May 2012, show the market growing at 3.1%. This is a sharp decrease on the 5.0% growth reported last period. What's more, in the four weeks ending 13 May 2012, the grocery market has actually declined by 1.0%.

Edward Garner, Director at Kantar Worldpanel comments: “On the face of it, the declines in market growth might seem alarming but there are exceptional factors. Easter and the Royal Wedding helped year-on-year growth soar to a remarkable 7.6% in the four weeks leading up to May 15 2011 – a hint of what's to come over the Jubilee weekend. Comparing the current figures with the same period two years ago, the four week growth stands at 6.5%. This is actually in line with long-term trends and shows 2011 as the anomaly.”

Against this backdrop, the retailers might expect to record depressed growth however Aldi tells a different story. The retailer has posted growth of 25.4% to achieve a share of 2.8% – another all-time record. Lidl also holds on to its record 2.8% share from last period with 11.3% growth and Waitrose continues to outpace the market with 7.0% growth.

Edward continues:“The ongoing strong performances of Aldi and Lidl have led some commentators to believe that consumers are deserting conventional stores for the discount sector. However, a more realistic picture of shopper behaviour shows that many consumers are continuing to do their main shopping trip in their usual store, but spending the remainder of their household budget on the discounters.”

Among the big four, Sainsbury's holds on to its share while Tesco and Morrisons continue to feel the pressure. Asda remains strong with 6.5% growth, reflecting the addition of Netto stores. The stubbornly high level of food price inflation means that shoppers continue to feel the squeeze on their household budgets.

Watch the previous commentary here